data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions. We then use …

data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions. We then use …

pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic … greatly-from an 80 percent rise (relative to January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 to a 20-fold rise in … forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: implied volatility rose rapidly from late February and …