In an environment where capital market participants collectively possess superior information about a decision faced by a firm manager, we use an experimental market to analyze the effectiveness with which the market communicates this information to the manager through stock price. We do so in a...

Prior research provides only weak and controversial evidence that people overestimate the likelihood of desirable events (wishful thinking), but strong evidence that people bet more heavily on those events (wishful betting). Two experiments show that wishful betting contaminates beliefs in...