In this paper we analyse the role of wage expectations in an empirical model of incomplete spells of unemployment and reservation wages. To be specific, we model the duration of unemployment, reservation wages and expected wages simultaneously for a sample of individuals who are not in work,...

Does more schooling causes a delay in marriage? Using a nationwide change in the compulsory schooling law in the UK as a source of exogenous variation in education, this paper estimates the causal effect of schooling on age at first marriage. The 1947 reform, which uniquely affected about a half...

Teen motherhood continues to be high in the US and the UK relative to most other western European countries. While recent research has clarified how effective policies to reduce teen motherhood might be (Kearney (2009)), there remains little evidence that quantifies the causal effects of teen...

Monetary developments of recent decades began with much promise with inflation targeting by independent central banks; the financial crisis of 2007 ushered in a period of great monetary instability. There are lessons for a return to more stability. Central banks need to stabilize money supply...

We estimate the short run effects of Brexit border disruption on the UK economy. We estimate a structural VAR for the UK where Brexit effects are identified by the dates of Brexit events, the referendum and the exit from the single market. We find evidence of short run effects of Brexit:...

This paper extends Meenagh and Minford (2021) to the four waves of infection in the UK by end-2021, using the unique newly available sample-based estimates of infections created by the ONS. These allow us to estimate the e§ects on the Covid hospitalisation and fatality rates of vaccination and...