A simulation is used to examine the impact of government farm program and crop revenue coverage insurance on the probability distribution of returns to land. When combined, marketing loan program payments, agricultural market transition act payments, and market loss assistance payments...

Past research on agricultural loan pricing is not extensive and has been hampered by a lack of suitable data. The Farm Service Agency (FSA) has guaranteed approximately 5 percent of farm debt of the Farm Credit System (FCS) and banks, the primary lenders to agriculture. As a requirement of the...

Studies of hog industry structure often invoke risk reduction and transaction costs explanations for empirical observations but fail to directly examine the core concepts of risk behavior and transaction costs theories. Using a more unified conceptual framework and unique survey and accounting...

This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders identified considerable heterogeneity in individual dynamic trading behavior. Using risk measures derived from the deltas and vegas of...

Liquidity costs in futures markets are not observed directly because bids and offers occur in an open outcry pit and are not recorded. Traditional estimation of these costs has focused on bidask spreads using transaction prices. However, the bid-ask spread only captures the tightness of the...

This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE,...

Price volatility in the corn market has changed considerably globalization and stronger linkages to the energy complex. Using data from January 1989 through December 2009, we estimate and forecast the volatility in the corn market using futures daily prices. Estimates in a Fractional Integrated...