If official interventions convey private information useful for price discovery in foreign-exchange markets, then they should have value as a forecast of near-term exchange-rate movements. Using a set of standard criteria, we show that approximately 60 percent of all U.S. foreign-exchange...

If official interventions convey private information useful for price discovery in foreign-exchange markets, then they should have value as a forecast of near-term exchange-rate movements. Using a set of standard criteria, we show that approximately 60 percent of all U.S. foreign-exchange...

It is controversial whether money stock targeting without base drift (i.e. following a trend-stationary growth path) makes the price level more predictable in the presence of permanent shocks to money demand. Developing a procedure that does not run into the Lucas critique, and applying this...

It is controversial whether money stock targeting without base drift (i.e. following a trend-stationary growth path) makes the price level more predictable in the presence of permanent shocks to money demand. Developing a procedure that does not run into the Lucas critique, and applying this...

In this paper, we examine three famous episodes of deliberate deflation (or disinflation) in U.S. history, including episodes following the Civil War, World War I, and the Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s. These episodes were associated with widely divergent effects on the real economy,...