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For over two centuries, the municipal bond market has been a source of systemic risk, which returned early in the COVID-19 downturn when borrowing from securities markets became costly for many private and public entities, and some found it difficult to borrow at all. Indeed, just before the Fed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048698
Does the yield curve’s ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates and inflation are low, as was recently the case? We explore the issue using historical data going back to the 19th century for the US. This paper is similar in spirit to Ramey and Zubairy (2018),...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014237747
Does the yield curve's ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates are low, as in the current global environment? In this paper we build on recent econometric work by Shi, Phillips and Hurn that detects changes in the causal impact of the yield curve and relate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481239
Does the yield curve's ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates are low, as in the current global environment? In this paper we build on recent econometric work by Shi, Phillips, and Hurn that detects changes in the causal impact of the yield curve and relate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822664
Does the yield curve's ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates are low, as in the current global environment? In this paper we build on recent econometric work by Shi, Phillips and Hurn that detects changes in the causal impact of the yield curve and relate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013299169
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014492053
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002548166
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002039142
What is the long-run relationship between monetary and fiscal policies? This paper provides an answer by examining a large set of data covering major economies during the past 115 years. The evidence suggests the existence of a close interaction between the monetary regime, that is the behaviour...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001600040
Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916991