This paper focuses on technologies which use thermo-chemical or biochemical processes to convert biomass into electricity. We present the results from an expert elicitation exercise involving sixteen leading experts coming from different EU Member States. Aim of the elicitation was to assess the...

This paper analyzes the future prospects of carbon capture technologies. The first part of the analysis presents and discusses the results of an expert elicitation survey on a broad range of carbon capture options. The survey collected probabilistic estimates on the future values of energy...

Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future...

We address the problem of decision making under “deep uncertainty,” introducing an approach we call Robust Portfolio Decision Analysis. We introduce the idea of Belief Dominance as a prescriptive operationalization of a concept that has appeared in the literature under a number of names. We...

We address the problem of choosing a portfolio of policies under “deep uncertainty.” We introduce the idea of belief dominance as a way to derive a set of non-dominated portfolios and robust individual alternatives. Our approach departs from the tradition of providing a single recommended...

This paper analyzes the future prospects of carbon capture technologies. The first part of the analysis presents and discusses the results of an expert elicitation survey on a broad range of carbon capture options. The survey collected probabilistic estimates on the future values of energy...

How should a decision-maker allocate R&D funds when a group of experts provides divergent estimates on a technology's potential effectiveness? To address this question, we propose a simple decision-theoretic framework that takes into account ambiguity over the aggregation of expert opinion and a...