Which level of inflation should Central Banks be targeting? We investigate this issue in the contextof a simplified Agent Based Model of the economy. Depending on the value of the parameters thatdescribe the behaviour of agents (in particular inflation anticipations), we find a rich variety...

We consider the problem of option pricing and hedging when stock returns are correlated in time. Within a quadratic-risk minimisation scheme, we obtain a general formula, valid for weakly correlated non-Gaussian processes. We show that for Gaussian price increments, the correlations are...

We propose a new 'hedged' Monte-Carlo (HMC) method to price financial derivatives, which allows to determine simultaneously the optimal hedge. The inclusion of the optimal hedging strategy allows one to reduce the financial risk associated with option trading, and for the very same reason...

Agent-Based Models (ABM) are computational scenario-generators, which can be used to predict the possible future outcomes of the complex system they represent. To better understand the robustness of these predictions, it is necessary to understand the full scope of the possible phenomena the...

The aim of this work is to explore the possible types of phenomena that simple macroeconomic Agent-Based models (ABM) can reproduce. We propose a methodology, inspired by statistical physics, that characterizes a model through its "phase diagram'' in the space of parameters. Our first motivation...

We generalise the stylised macroeconomic Agent-Based model introduced in our previous paper ("Tipping points in macroeconomic agent-based models", JEDC 50 29–61 2015), with the aim of investigating the role and efficacy of monetary policy of a "Central Bank", that sets the interest rate such...

The aim of this work is to explore the possible types of phenomena that simple macroeconomic Agent-Based models (ABMs) can reproduce. We propose a methodology, inspired by statistical physics, that characterizes a model through its “phase diagram” in the space of parameters. Our first...

Using a large set of daily US and Japanese stock returns, we test in detail the relevance of Student models, and of more general elliptical models, for describing the joint distribution of returns. We find that while Student copulas provide a good approximation for strongly correlated pairs of...

We investigate several statistical properties of the order book of three liquid stocks of the Paris Bourse. The results are to a large degree independent of the stock studied. The most interesting features concern (i) the statistics of incoming limit order prices, which follows a power-law...