We analyze major transitions in U.S. trade policy using a two-factor, two-good, two-country model, where domestic policy is the outcome of political bargaining between two parties representing each factor owner—globalists and protectionists. The dominant party sets the agenda, but parties must...

Trade policy is set by domestic political bargaining between globalists and protectionists, representing owners of factors specific to export and import-competing sectors respectively. Consistent with the post-Civil War Era of Restriction, protectionists implement high tariffs when status quo...