Russia's central bank adopted a new monetary policy regime in 2018 by raising the key interest rate for the first time since December 2014. After slashing the key interest rate on February 9th and on March 23rd by 0.25 percentage points to 7.5 and 7.25 percent per annum, respectively, the...

At its June meeting, for the first time this year, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 0.25 pp. to 7.5% per annum. Such a decision was motivated by the plunge of annual inflation in April-May 2019 to 5.1%, coupled with weakening inflation risks. The inflation...

Russia's current account balance continued to contract in Q3 2017 on the back of stabilizing exports amid rising imports. A financial account surplus was led by foreign capital inflow (FDI) into other sectors, as well as by nonresident purchases of Federal Loan Obligations (OFZs). A double BOP...

Monetary policy analysts often rely on rules-of-thumb, such as the Taylor rule, to describe historical monetary policy decisions and to compare current policy to historical norms. Analysis along these lines also permits evaluation of episodes where policy may have deviated from a simple rule and...

The Bank of Russia on 11 December 2015 decided to keep the base interest rate unchanged at 11%, thus indicating that the bank will not move forward with easing monetary policy. Russia's Central Bank on 14 December resumed 12-month foreign exchange repo auctions with a view to pushing down demand...

Russia's balance of payments data for Q3 2015 show a considerable decline in her current account balance. In monetary terms, the decline in imports during Q3 was faster than that in exports (relative to Q3 2014). By comparison with Q2 2015, it even demonstrated a slight increase, notwithstanding...

Russia's current account balance went negative in Q2 2017 due to a growth in imports of goods driven by a strengthening Russian rouble, seasonal growth in imports of services and investment income payments amid stagnating exports of goods after the rising oil price trend grinded to a halt....

On 30 April 2015, the Bank of Russia reduced the key interest rate from 14% to 12.5% per annum, noting in this connection that the inflation risks had become less pronounced, but that the risks of a more significant cooling of the economy were still there. By all indications, the RF Central Bank...

The key factor in the strengthening of the real exchange rate of the ruble in the 2000s was the transformation based growth of Russia's economy (the Balassa-Samuelson effect) coupled with the improving foreign trade conditions. As can be concluded on the basis of data for Q4 2014, for the...

Due to the turmoil in the foreign exchange market, the Bank of Russia lifted on the 16th of December the key interest rate up to 17% p.a. in an effort to stop the ruble's rapid depreciation. In December 2014, the consumer price index stood at 2.6% (0.5% in December 2013 ), up 1.3 p.p. above the...