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Indeterminate Probabilities and Smithian and Keynesian Uncertainty

Brady, Michael Emmett - 2014

Smith, Keynes, and Knight, in that order, made seminal contributions to decision making which emphasized uncertainty and indeterminate probabilities, as opposed to mere imprecision. De Finetti’s views on uncertainty are diametrically opposed to those of Smith, Keynes, and Knight once the clear...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014142839

Keynes’s Canonical Statements on Uncertainty Appear in his 1921 a Treatise on Probability in Chapter 26 on Pages 309-312 : Statements about Uncertainty in the General Theory in 193...

Brady, Michael Emmett - 2019

Probability, the General Theory,and the 1937 Quarterly Journal of Economics, reveal that Keynes’s discussions about uncertainty in … the General Theory, and the 1937 Quarterly Journal of Economics article are simply small ,minor footnotes to the A … mention or make any reference to the 1937 Quarterly Journal of Economics article, which Joan Robinson, G L S Shackle, Paul …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014104170

Measuring economic policy uncertainty

Baker, Scott; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J. - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410518

Measuring economic policy uncertainty

Baker, Scott; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J. - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011415992

Surveying business uncertainty

Altig, David; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; … - 2019

We develop a new monthly panel survey of business executives and a new question design that elicits subjective probability distributions over own-firm outcomes at a one-year lookahead horizon. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) began in 2014 and now covers 1,500 firms drawn from all 50...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012020039