This paper analyses the proposals contained in the Government GreenPaper, A New Contract for Welfare: Partnership in Pensions for low paidworkers and the potential of the new rules to guarantee a decent incomein old age. It discusses the general principles inherent in the design ofthe British...

In 2005, the Ministry of Social Development (MSD) commissioned research to review international evaluation methodology and literature to help in the preparation of evaluation of the Working for Families (WFF) policy, introduced in 2004 to assist working low- and middle-income families in New...

This CASEbrief summarises the responses to 'The pensions Green Paper - A new contract for welfare: partnership in pensions' made by members of CASE in CASEpaper 23, 'Tightropes and tripwires: New Labour's proposals and means-testing in old age' by Katherine Rake, Jane Falkingham and Martin...

In a market with symmetric information about fundamentals, can information-based trade still arise? Consider bond and FX markets, where private information about nominal cash flows is generally absent, but participants are convinced that superior information exists. We analyze a class of...

The methodological review is the second part of the evaluation research commissioned by the Ministry of Social Development (MSD) in 2005 to help in the preparation of the evaluation of the Working for Families (WFF) programme. This review enumerates the key evaluation questions identified by MSD...

This paper tests whether macroeconomic news is transmitted to exchange rates via the transactions process and if so, what share occurs via transactions versus the traditional direct channel. We identify the link between order flow and macro news using a heteroskedasticity-based approach, a la...

Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...

We address whether transaction flows in foreign exchange markets convey fundamental information. Our GE model includes fundamental information that first manifests at the micro level and is not symmetrically observed by all agents. This produces foreign exchange transactions that play a central...

We address the exchange rate determination puzzle by examining how information is aggregated in a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) setting. Unlike other DGE macro models, which enrich either preference structures or production structures, our model enriches the information structure. The model...

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the...