Over coming decades, changes in population age structure will have profound implications for the macroeconomy, influencing economic growth, generational equity, human capital, saving and investment, and the sustainability of public and private transfer systems. How the future unfolds will depend...

In this paper we develop a new model for stochastic mortality that considers the possibility of both positive and negative catastrophic mortality shocks. Specifically, we assume that the mortality intensity can be described by an affine function of a finite number of latent factors whose...

In life insurance, actuaries have traditionally calculated premiums and reserves using a deterministic mortality intensity, which is a function of the age of the insured only. Over the course of the 20th century, the population of the industrialized world underwent a major mortality transition,...

Historically, actuaries have been calculating premiums and mathematical reserves using a deterministic approach, by considering a deterministic mortality intensity, which is a function of the age only, extracted from available (static) life tables and by setting a flat ("best estimate") interest...

Este artículo examina los determinantes directos de la tasa de retorno implícita (p) asociada a un sistema de pensiones de reparto, al que resume y precisa la relación entre las contribuciones realizadas y los beneficios recibidos a los largo del ciclo de vida. En general, el crecimiento de...

Cómo se relacionan las fluctuaciones económicas globales con el estado de salud de la población, y qué tan estrecha es esta relación, son dos preguntas a las que se dirige este estudio. Se analizan las relaciones existentes entre los cambios de corto plazo en la economía (producto, empleo...

In many policy areas it is essential to use the best estimates of life expectancy, but it is vital to most areas of pension policy. This paper presents the conceptual differences between static period and dynamic cohort mortality tables, estimates the differences in life expectancy for Portugal...