The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, we document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to...

Existing empirical evidence suggests that the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) condition may not hold due to an exchange risk premium. For a panel data set of eleven emerging European economies we decompose this exchange risk premium into an idiosyncratic (country-specific) elements and a...

In this paper we consider the impact of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral US trade (both exports and imports) using sectoral data. Amongst the novelties in our approach are the use of sectoral industrial price indices, rather than an aggregate price index, and the construction...

This paper examines the issue of fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of the time series properties of the primary surplus and debt, and find evidence of a positive long run relationship. Consequently we emphasise, that...

This paper investigates the size and nature of exchange rate pass through to import prices for a panel of 14 emerging economies. We firstly set out a stylized model in which import prices are dependent upon the exchange rate, marginal cost and the mark up. We employed methods which account for...

The disconnect between rising short and low long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s. Both research and policy circles have argued that international forces, such as global monetary policy (e.g. Rogoff, 2006); international business cycles (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007);...

National inflation rates reflect domestic and international (regional and global) influences. The relative importance of these components remains a controversial empirical issue. We extend the literature on inflation co-movement by utilising a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility to...

In this paper we empirically examine the relationship between the real exchange rate and real interest rate differentials using recent econometric methods robust to potential structural breaks. Generally, our study provides evidence of this relationship in the long-run context. More...

Since Perron (1989) the time series literature has emphasised the importance of testing for structural breaks in typical economic data sets and pronounced the implications of structural breaks when testing for unit root processes. In this paper we survey recent developments in testing for unit...

EMU monetary policy targets aggregate Euro Area inflation. Concerns are growing that a focus on aggregate inflation may cause national inflation rates to diverge. While different explanations for diverging aggregate Euro Area inflation have been brought forward, the very impact of aggregation on...