Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in favor of asymmetric spillover effects. Unemployment … of the 2-year ahead forecast error of the Canadian unemployment rate in periods of slack vs. just 2% during economic … of the latter, lead to a temporary increase in the Canadian unemployment rate. Evidence of asymmetric spillover effects …

increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions. We find the response of unemployment to … be statistically and economically larger in recessions. A state-contingent forecast error variance decomposition analysis … confirms that the contribution of EPU shocks to the volatility of unemployment at business cycle frequencies is markedly larger …

We investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics in the post-WWII U.S. recessions via non … linear VARs in terms of (i) magnitude of the reaction of the unemployment rate to such shocks, and (ii) contribution to the … variance of the prediction errors of unemployment at business cycle frequencies. We discuss the ability of different classes of …