The paper investigates the role of domestic and global determinants of euro area core inflation. We analyse the entire conditional distribution of inflation by estimating a Phillips curve type relationship using an expectile regression approach, extended to capture time-varying effects. The main...

The uncertainty surrounding economic forecasts is generally related to multiple sources of risks, of domestic and foreign origin. This paper studies the predictive distribution of Italian GDP growth as a function of selected risk indicators, related to both financial and real economic...