I study potentials and gaps, permanent and transitory fluctuations in macroeconomic variables using the Smets and Wouter (2007) model. Model-based gaps display low frequency variations; possess more than business cycle fluctuations; have similar frequency representation as potentials, and are...

I study potentials and gaps, permanent and transitory fluctuations in macroeconomic variables using the Smets and Wouter (2007) model. Model-based gaps display low frequency variations; possess more than business cycle fluctuations; have similar frequency representation as potentials, and are...

We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and of interest...

We examine the dynamics of US output and inflation using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. We show that there are changes in the volatility of both variables and in the persistence of inflation. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility, while a combination of technology,...

We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output...

We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and of interest...

We examine monetary policy in the Euro area from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We discuss what theory tells us the strategy of Central banks should be and contrasts it with the one employed by the ECB. We review accomplishments (and failures) of monetary policy in the Euro area...

We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output...

We examine the dynamics of US output and inflation using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. We show that there are changes in the volatility of both variables and in the persistence of inflation. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility, while a combination of technology,...

We examine monetary policy in the euro area from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We discuss what theory tells us the strategy of Central banks should be and contrasts it with the one employed by the ECB. We review accomplishments (and failures) of monetary policy in the euro area...