This paper applies a recently developed method (Inoue and Rossi, 2021) to estimate functional inflation expectations … on both inflation and output. In addition, threshold functional local projections indicate that the effects are nonlinear … and depend on central bank credibility. Further, inflation expectations shocks have similar effects to supply (demand …

inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the …, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty …, thereby reducing the direct effect of interest rate changes on inflation. Since EPU shocks reflect, at least to some extent …

official policy rates and those implied by three types of Taylor rules in both inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada …, Australia and New Zealand) and others that have only targeted inflation at times (the US, Japan, the Euro Area and Switzerland …