Volatility clustering, long-range dependence, non-Gaussianity and anomalous scaling are all well-known stylized facts of financial assets return dynamics. These elements have a relevant impact on the aptness of models for the pricing of options written on financial assets. We make us of a model...

Contrary to the common wisdom that asset prices are barely possible to forecast, we show that that high and low prices of equity shares are largely predictable. We propose to model them using a simple implementation of a fractional vector autoregressive model with error correction (FVECM). This...

This paper investigates the impact of a financial turmoil on the performances of traditional, and naive, asset allocation strategies. We compare over a long time span (lasting for the last 60 years) the 1/N portfolio with mean-variance optimal portfolio strategies. Our analyses consider several...

The intercept of the standard CAPM and Conditional CAPM model, the alpha, is used to evaluate the long-run performance of managed portfolios. However, this measure is not always appropriate for detecting the presence and impact of active management strategies. In this paper, we introduce a...

When principal component analysis (PCA) is used on a rolling or conditional setting, ordering and incoherence issues may emerge. We provide empirical evidence supporting this claim and introduce an algorithm that allows dynamic re-ordering of the principal components (PCs). We provide additional...

Weather derivatives have become very popular tools in weather risk management in recent years. One of the elements supporting their diffusion has been the increase in volatility observed on many energy markets. Among the several available contracts, Quanto options are now becoming very popular...

The hedging of weather risks has become extremely relevant in recent years, promoting the diffusion of weather derivative contracts. The pricing of such contracts require the development of appropriate models for the prediction of the underlying weather variables. Within this framework, we...

The modelling of wind speed is a traditional topic in meteorological research, where the main interest is on the short-term forecast of wind speed intensity and direction. More recently, this theme has received some interest in the quantitative finance literature for its relationship with...

We present a generalisation of the double long memory ARFIMA-FIGARCH model introducing time-varying memory coefficients for both mean and variance. The model satisfies the empirical evidence of changing memory observed in average temperature series and can provide useful improvements in the...