Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We...

Economic forecasts taken into account during the European Semester are getting an increasing role in macroeconomic policy decisions. The main motivation for this paper is to analyse the performance of national, international and private agencies in forecasting the government deficit as a ratio...