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We estimate a multivariate early-warning model to assess the usefulness of private credit and other macro-financial variables in predicting banking sector vulnerabilities. Using data for 23 European countries, we find that global variables and in particular global credit growth are strong...
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We develop a framework to analyse the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market as a network of risk transfers among counterparties. From a theoretical perspective, we introduce the notion of flow-of-risk and provide sufficient conditions for a bow-tie network architecture to endogenously emerge as a...
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This paper provides a unique snapshot of the exposures of EU banks to shadow banking entities within the global … challenging when shadow banking entities are domiciled in different jurisdictions. The analysis shows that many of the EU banks …' exposures are towards non-EU entities, particularly US-domiciled shadow banking entities. At the individual level, banks …
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Using variance decompositions in vector auto-regressions (VARs) we model a high-dimensional network of European CDS spreads to assess the transmission of credit risk to the non-financial corporate sector. Our findings suggest a sectoral clustering in the CDS network, where financial institutions...
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