This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

Several criticisms of the current fiscal strategy in the EU have recently been forcefully expressed. In this brief, we examine these criticisms, and provide some clarifications and responses. We recall that large adjustments are needed in most economies to restore sustaina-ble fiscal positions,...

Large and differentiated fiscal adjustments underway in EU countries require credible strategies, including a growth-friendly approach to consolidation design. This brief captures in a summary fashion the main underlying principles for fiscal adjustments of high quality. While setting some...