This study investigates empirical methods of generating prediction intervals for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices over the 1980/81 through 2006/07 marketing years. Empirical methods use historical forecast errors to estimate forecast error distributions, which are then used to...

The lack of consistently acceptable convergence performance for Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn, soybean, and wheat contracts since late 2005 has been widely discussed (e.g., Henriques, 2008).1 Convergence performance is summarized in Figure 1, depicting delivery location basis levels on the...

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has a number of agencies that are involved in collecting, analyzing, forecasting, and disseminating information about the production and consumption of the corn and soybean crops (Spilka, 1983; Vogel and Bange, 1999; Lusk, 2013). Market participants...

The economic value of public situation and outlook information has long been a subject of debate. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economic value of USDA WASDE reports in corn and soybean markets. The investigation is based on event study analysis, with the "events" consisting of...

This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions forWASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidencelimits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fiterrors expressed as a function of...

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2004-2013 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes.Both the U.S. and...

Roundup Ready® Wheat (RRW) was one of the first genetically modified (GM) traits for the wheat sector and was under review by regulatory agencies in the United States and Canada when Monsanto withdrew it from further consideration. There are a multitude of issues associated with the ex ante...

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2005-2015 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes.Both the U.S. and...