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We develop uncertainty indices for the United States and Australia based on freely accessible, real time Google Trends data. Our Google Trends Uncertainty (GTU) indices are found to be positively correlated to a variety of alternative proxies for uncertainty available for these two countries....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943150
help anchoring inflation expectations. We use survey data on long-term inflation expectations in 15 industrial countries … since the early nineties to investigate how well anchored are inflation expectations. We find that in all countries except … Japan long-term inflation expectations are well anchored and, generally, increasingly so over the past decade. When …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635904
We propose a novel robust test to assess whether an estimated new-Keynesian model is consistent with a unique stable solution, as opposed to multiple equilibria. Our strategy is designed to handle identification failures as well as the misspecification of the relevant propagation mechanisms. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011156745
The role of trend inflation shocks for the U.S. macroeconomic dynamics is investigated by estimating two DSGE models of … the business cycle. Policymakers are assumed to be concerned with a time-varying inflation target, which is modeled as a … persistent and stochastic process. The identification of trend inflation shocks (as opposed to a number of alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010702037
We propose a novel identification-robust test for the null hypothesis that an estimated new-Keynesian model has a reduced form consistent with the unique stable solution against the alternative of sunspot-driven multiple equilibria. Our strategy is designed to handle identification failures as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011123415
We propose a novel identification-robust test for the null hypothesis that an estimated new- Keynesian model has a reduced form consistent with the unique stable solution against the alternative of sunspot-driven multiple equilibria. Our strategy is designed to handle identification failures as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010902168
Are foreign variables important for tracking U.S. inflation expectations? This paper estimates a reduced-form model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005786731
assessments on the impact of structural shocks to the U.S. macroeconomic aggregates, especially during the great inflation period. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533554