Replacing equity return (as in the equity risk premium) with returns on an arbitrary contingent claim, we obtain a new class of economic risk premiums to impose upon candidate models. These risk premiums reflect the distance between the physical and risk-neutral moments for asset returns, can be...

I use option prices to infer real-time moments of stochastic discount factors (SDFs). The moments are estimated, from daily SP 500 index option data, in real time, without relying on past observations. These moments are forward-looking and significantly predict the market excess return. The...

Entropy and entropy-like measures of pricing kernel dispersion emerge as useful tools in asset pricing research. We develop a systematic approach to bounding entropy by incorporating conditioning information. Our bounds feature a fixed-point solution to a dynamic asset allocation problem....

We derive lower and upper bounds on the conditional market autocorrelation index at various investment horizons without using the precise form of the utility function. The bounds are derived in terms of option prices and can be computed at daily frequency for any given horizon. The bounds...

We develop a methodology to decompose the conditional market risk premium and risk premia on higher-order moments of excess market returns into components related to contingent claims on down, up, and moderate market returns. The decompositions do not depend on assumptions about investor...

This paper investigates whether multivariate crash risk (MCRASH), defined as exposure to extreme realizations of multiple systematic factors, is priced in the cross-section of expected stock returns. We derive an extended linear model with a positive premium for MCRASH and we empirically confirm...

This paper examines whether investors receive compensation for holding crash-sensitive stocks. We capture the crash sensitivity of stocks by their lower tail dependence (LTD) with the market based on copulas. We find that stocks with strong LTD have higher average future returns than stocks with...

This paper investigates whether multivariate crash risk (MCRASH), defined as exposure to extreme realizations of multiple systematic factors, is priced in the cross-section of expected stock returns. We derive an extended linear model with a positive premium for MCRASH and we empirically confirm...

This paper investigates whether multivariate crash risk is priced in the cross- section of expected stock returns. Motivated by a theoretical asset pricing model, we capture the multivariate crash risk of a stock by a combined measure based on its expected shortfall and its multivariate lower...

We derive lower and upper bounds on the conditional expected excess market return that are related to risk-neutral volatility, skewness, and kurtosis indexes. The bounds can be calculated in real time using a cross section of option prices. The bounds require a no-arbitrage assumption, but do...