This paper proposes a new approach to strategic asset allocation for central banks’ management of foreign reserves. This eclectic approach combines the behavioural portfolio management in the framework of mean-variance mental accounting (MVMA) with the improvements on asset return forecast...

The massive accumulation of foreign reserves by China has challenged the conventional thinking about prudent reserve management. This paper develops a behavioural model of optimal decision making under uncertainty to explain the observed Chinese reserve policy. Departing from the conventional...

This paper provides a market-microstructure analysis of exchange rate dynamics in the Chinese foreign exchange market using a vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. An index of order flow is constructed in the Chinese context to reflect excess demand pressure in the foreign exchange...

We develop a Global VAR (GVAR) model for current account analysis. The model includes major economies involved in global imbalances and a few key macro variables to comprehensively examine the relations between these economies and the causality of the variables. We estimate the GVAR model based...