Maximum likelihood estimation of discretely observed diffusion processes is mostly hampered by the lack of a closed form solution of the transient density. It has recently been argued that a most generic remedy to this problem is the numerical solution of the pertinent Fokker-Planck (FP) or...

This study develops and estimates the level of profitability and pessimism/optimism in the stock markets of the Russian Federation, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovenia and compares them with the U.S. market. The risk premium associated with the...

A recent theory of information uncertainty (IU) postulates a negative (positive) relationship between IU and future returns (momentum returns). We extend this theory by showing that its predictions could be conditioned by differences in behavioral biases induced by culture. We find that greater...

We test the behavioural theories of overconfidence and underreaction on cross-sectional (CS) and times-series (TS) momentum returns in the Japanese stock markets. Both CS and TS momentum returns are large and significant when the market continues in the same state and turns into losses when the...

We test the behavioural theories of overconfidence and underreaction on cross-sectional (CS) and times-series (TS) momentum returns in the Japanese stock markets. Both CS and TS momentum returns are large and significant when the market continues in the same state and turns into losses when the...

Recent evidence on the relation between momentum and idiosyncratic volatility (IV) in the U.S. is mixed. We verify the relation between momentum and IV in China and find at best, no relation supporting the view that idiosyncratic risk is not a significant arbitrage cost for momentum returns....

Recent studies suggest that momentum returns are conditioned by market states, but we find that China is different. First, we find that momentum returns in China exclusively follow DOWN markets contrary to the U.S. evidence. Second, the absence of momentum returns following UP markets in China...

The research literature shows that investor sentiment is a contrarian predictor of aggregate stock market returns. However, we contend that investor sentiment only predicts aggregate stock market returns during high-sentiment states where overpricing is more prevalent than underpricing. Using a...

Recent evidence on the relationship between investor sentiment and subsequent monthly market returns in China shows that investor sentiment is a reliable momentum predictor since an increase (decrease) in investor sentiment leads to higher (lower) future returns. However, we suggest that...