Neural networks can forecast economic data with accuracy matching that of conventional autoregressive methods such as SARIMA and VAR. This study uses dense, recurrent, convolutional, and convnet/RNN hybrids to conduct time-series analysis of interest rates, consumer and producer prices, and...

This article reviews two leading measures of financial risk and an emerging alternative. Embraced by the Basel accords, value-at-risk and expected shortfall are the leading measures of financial risk. Expectiles offset the weaknesses of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall. Indeed,...

The law of regulated industries, particularly the legislative command that the government ensure “just and reasonable rates” for regulated services, is a highly specialized application of financial economics. Ratemaking, to put it bluntly, represents a regulatory exercise in capital asset...

My recent book, Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing: Splitting the Atom of Systematic Risk, splits beta, the capital asset pricing model's basic unit of systematic risk, into subatomic (or “baryonic”) components, by analogy to the Standard Model of particle physics. This essay offers...

This paper presents a physical model of the Gini coefficient and its corresponding Lorenz curve. If the Lorenz curve is scaled to 1, then 1 represents gross domestic income, gross domestic product, or societal wealth. The value 1 also represents total population. On these assumptions, the value...

This essay presents higher-moment asset pricing, a generalized approach to finance that combines a mathematically informed understanding of economic fundamentals with psychologically and biologically inspired behavioral insights. It ultimately seeks to apply higher-moment asset pricing to a wide...

Uncertainty affects all aspects of economics. A principle this vital demands a mathematically precise definition. The distinction between risk and uncertainty, as made by Frank Knight (1921) and John Maynard Keynes (1937), invites the following definition (Anderson, Ghysels & Juergens 2009): An...

Because there is no perfect gauge of inflation, the macroeconomic enterprise of indexing inflation ultimately dissolves into a choice among imperfect methodologies. But that choice still matters. This article will highlight the practical significance of methodological choices made in the course...