The sharp rise in government debt in many major economies following the introduction of large fiscal stimulus measures during the global financial crisis of 2008-09 has triggered concerns over its impact on long-term interest rates and the potential negative consequences for future growth and...

In this paper, we assess the interdependence between equity markets in the EMEAP region and the US, and across the EMEAP markets using two indicators, namely the dynamic conditional correlation and the spillover index. These indicators show that equity market interdependence has increased...

Traditional measures of concentration of financial market activities do not adequately reflect an economy¡¦s status as an international financial centre (IFC). In this paper, we construct alternative measures that better capture the ability of an IFC to attract capital flows and international...

Widespread financial distress typically arises from the unwinding of financial imbalances that build up disguised by benign economic conditions. This paper studies whether credit is a pertinent indicator of future equity price booms, and thus provides a signal for potential financial...

It has often been argued that East Asia needs to switch from an export-led growth model to a domestic-demand led growth model so as to reduce its vulnerability to a sharp slowdown in the US economy. This paper argues that, indeed, in the foreseeable future, East Asia's business cycle is unlikely...

This paper aims to provide an analytical framework for an educated guess of the potential volume of outward portfolio investment from Mainland China and how large a share Hong Kong could capture, should the Mainland's capital account be as open as any other developed economies. Based on our...

Sharp increase in house prices combined with the extraordinary lending growth in Mainland China during 2009 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. We find that, for China as a whole, the current levels of house prices do not seem significantly higher than would be justified by...

Driven largely by unique economic and political factors, Hong Kong SAR was a globalised economy long before the advent of global value chains in the 1990s. In particular, Hong Kong's role as a link between Mainland China and the rest of the world strengthened over time, as did its status as an...