We observe that daily highs and lows of stock prices do not diverge over time and, hence, adopt the cointegration concept and the related vector error correction model (VECM) to model the daily high, the daily low, and the associated daily range data. The in-sample results attest the importance...

Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...

We explore interval forecast comparison when the nominal confidence level is specified, but the quantiles on which intervals are based are not specified. It turns out that the problem is difficult, and perhaps unsolvable. We first consider a situation where intervals meet the Christoffersen...

We propose point forecast accuracy measures based directly on distance of the forecast-error c.d.f. from the unit step function at 0 ("stochastic error distance," or SED). We provide a precise characterization of the relationship between SED and standard predictive loss functions, showing that...

Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...

The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test was intended for comparing forecasts; it has been, and remains, useful in that regard. The DM test was not intended for comparing models. Unfortunately, however, much of the large subsequent literature uses DM-type tests for comparing models, in (pseudo-)...

The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test was intended for comparing forecasts; it has been, and remains, useful in that regard. The DM test was not intended for comparing models. Unfortunately, however, much of the large subsequent literature uses DM-type tests for comparing models, in (pseudo-)...

We observe that daily highs and lows of stock prices do not diverge over time and, hence, adopt the cointegration concept and the related vector error correction model (VECM) to model the daily high, the daily low, and the associated daily range data. The in-sample results attest the importance...