This paper develops two nonlinear cointegration models - a VECM with structural shift and a threshold cointegration model - applied to carbon spot and futures prices. The results extend the previous findings by Chevallier (2010), who studied this topic with a linear VECM. First, in the VECM with...

This paper analyzes jointly the time series of European Union Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) in a Markov regime-switching environment. The purpose consists in capturing the interactions between the two time series - which have been highlighted in previous literature...

This article assesses the transmission of international shocks to EUA spot, EUA futures, and CER futures carbon prices using a broad dataset that includes 115 macroeconomic, financial and commodities indicators with daily frequency from April 4, 2008 to January 25, 2010 totalling 463...

This article studies the price relationships between EU emissions allowances (EUAs) - valid under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) - and secondary Certified Emissions Reductions (sCERs) - established from primary CERs generated through the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism...

This article investigates the presence of outliers in the volatility of carbon prices. We compute three different measures of volatility for European Union Allowances, based on daily data (EGARCH model), option prices (implied volatility), and intraday data (realized volatility). Based on the...

Cet article examine les impacts de la production industrielle dans les secteurs couverts par le Système d’Echange des Quotas Européens (European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, EU ETS) sur les changements de prix au comptant du CO2 durant la PhaseI(2005-2007). À partir d’indices de...

EUAs are European Union Allowances traded on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), while Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) arise from the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol. These emissions assets attract an increasing attention among brokers, investors and operators on...

This article develops a forecasting exercise of the volatility of EUA spot, EUA futures, and CER futures carbon prices (modeled after an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)) using two dynamic factors as exogenous regressors that were extracted from a Factor Augmented VAR model (Bernanke et al. (2005)). The dataset...

This article proposes a theory of banking of emission permits under conditions of regulatory uncertainty. Based on a two-period partial equilibrium framework, we examine the effects of increasing risk - in the sense of a mean-preserving spread - regarding a future permits allocation at the...