This article describes a new way to use monthly data to improve the national forecasts of quarterly economic models. This new method combines the forecasts of a monthly model with those of a quarterly model using weights that maximize forecasting accuracy. While none of the method's steps is...

This paper presents a new method for predicting turning points. The paper formally defines a turning point; develops a probit model for estimating the probability of a turning point; and then examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model. The model performs...