In this paper, the evidence for a relative tradables-nontradables price based explanation for long run movements in East Asian real exchange rates is examined. Using both time series cointegration techniques and panel regression procedures, I find that the real exchange rates are cointegrated...

This paper shows that foreign term spreads constructed from bond yields of non-U.S. G-7 constituents predict future U.S. recessions and that foreign term spreads are stronger predictors of U.S. recessions occurring within the next year than U.S. term spreads. U.S. and foreign term spreads are...

We assess market mediated financial integration over the last fifty years. We first systematically lay out several definitions of financial integration, and then review the evidence regarding whether covered interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and real interest parity hold across...

The evidence for a productivity-based explanation for real exchange rate behavior of East Asian currencies is examined. Using sectoral output and employment data, relative prices and relative productivity levels are calculated for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore,...

The behavior of the dollar/euro exchange rate is modeled using a monetary model of the exchange rate. The econometric analysis is complicated by the short sample span of actual euro data available for analysis. Hence, data on a synthetic euro are used. The assumptions underlying the monetary...

The unbiasedness hypothesis

Using the indexes we developed (Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito, 2008) to measure the degree of the three policy choices countries make with respect to the trilemma: exchange rate stability, monetary independence, and capital account openness, we investigate the normative questions pertaining to the...

We develop a methodology that intuitively characterizes the choices countries have made with respect to the trilemma during the post Bretton-Woods period. The paper first outlines the new metrics for measuring the degree of exchange rate flexibility, monetary independence, and capital account...

This paper extends our previous paper (Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito 2008) and explores some of the unexplored questions. First, we examine the channels through which the trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility. Secondly, we investigate how trilemma policy configurations affect the...

We characterize the relationship between ex post exchange rate depreciation and the interest differential for a set of countries that spans both developed and emerging market economies. Measured ex post uncovered interest differentials are then related to measures of trade and financial...