We consider three sets of phenomena that feature prominently - and separately - in the financial economics literature: conditional mean dependence (or lack thereof) in asset returns, dependence (and hence forecastability) in asset return signs with implications for market timing, and dependence...

Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset...

Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset...

We consider three sets of phenomena that feature prominently and separately in the financial economics literature: conditional mean dependence (or lack thereof) in asset returns, dependence (and hence forecastability) in asset return signs with implications for market timing, and dependence (and...

Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset...

Under very general conditions, the total quadratic variation of a jump-diffusion process can be decomposed into diffusive volatility and squared jump variation. We use this result to develop a new option valuation model in which the underlying asset price exhibits volatility and jump intensity...

This paper presents a new model for the valuation of European options, in which the volatility of returns consists of two components. One of these components is a long-run component, and it can be modeled as fully persistent. The other component is short-run and has a zero mean. Our model can be...

Few issues are more important for finance practice than the computation of market betas. Existing approaches compute market betas using historical data. While these approaches differ in terms of statistical sophistication and the modeling of the time-variation in the betas, they are all...

We provide results for the valuation of European style contingent claims for a large class of specifications of the underlying asset returns. Our valuation results obtain in a discrete time, infinite state-space setup using the no-arbitrage principle and an equivalent martingale measure. Our...

Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We .nd that option-implied volatility and skewness...