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making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations … models proposed in the literature can be used to formally characterize and quantify market risk. In particular, we ask how … adequate these models are for modelling market risk at times of financial crisis. In doing so we consider a multivariate t …
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This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
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methods provide better overall forecasting performance and offer more attractive risk profiles compared to individual, pooled …
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beta co-moves with market variance and the stochastic discount factor (SDF), beta risk is priced, and the expected return … model on equity and option data, we find that beta risk explains expected returns on low- and high-beta stocks, resolving …
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