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There is ample empirical evidence for developed economies that asset prices contain information about future economic developments. But is this also the case in transition economies? Using a panel of monthly data for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, and Slovenia for the...
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embedded in index options. While market illiquidity and return volatility play complementary roles in explaining the time …-varying crash risk, the relative contribution of the volatility factor is weakened once we include market illiquidity as an economic …
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We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and …
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Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset … return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced …
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