rainfall growth between t-1 and t-2. I argue that this finding is driven by a positive correlation between conflict in t and …Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict … rainfall levels in t-2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, one might have expected MSS …

, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The … main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so …

Does economic growth affect the likelihood of civil war? Answering this question requires dealing with reverse … causation. Our approach exploits that international commodity prices have a significant effect on the income growth of Sub …-Saharan African countries. We show that lower income growth makes civil war more likely in non-democracies. This effect is …

window of opportunity for democratic change. We examine this hypothesis using yearly rainfall variation over the 1980 …-2004 period in 41 Sub-Saharan African countries. We find that a 25% drop in rainfall increases the probability of a transition to … democracy during the following two years by around 3 percentage points. A 5% fall in income due to low rainfall raises the …

rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement …

rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement …

rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. Our analysis yields that negative transitory shocks lead to significant …