In this study, we begin by assessing the ability of sovereign credit ratings to anticipate crises. In addition, given the wave of sovereign credit ratings downgrades that have followed the crises in Asia, we investigate formally the extent to which credit ratings are reactive. Along the way, we...

The preceding sections have predominantly focused on the antecedents of financial crises. Namely, the emphasis has been on the ability of a variety of indicators, including the credit ratings, to anticipate crises and characterize the extent to which a country is vulnerable. An application of...

This note reviews the theories as to why financial crises spill over across national boundaries. We discuss alternative frameworks ranging from bilateral trade links to more complex financial interconnections via banks and other investors. We review the evidence on which channels of contagion...

Abstract This paper discusses the effects of the real exchange rate (RER) on the structure of exports. Based on a North-South Ricardian model, two hypotheses are suggested and tested. The first one is that a higher RER allows for a higher diversification of exports. The second hypothesis is that...

Protracted expansionary monetary policies in advanced countries have renewed the debate over policy options to cope with large capital inflows that drive credit expansions in emerging economies. In a forthcoming paper, we show that during capital inflow bonanzas credit grows more rapidly and its...

This study documents a quantitative analysis of exchange rate volatilities and misalignment in Uzbekistan for the period of 1994q3–2005q2. The results suggest thatthe real exchange rate volatility and misalignment have depressing effects on the volume of trade, mainly exports in Uzbekistan....

The "traditional structural approach" to determining real commodity prices has relied exclusively on demand factors as the fundamentals that explain commodity prices. This framework, however, has been unable to explain the sustained weakness in commodity prices in the 1980s and 1990s. This paper...

This paper represents a neoclassical model that explains the observed empirical relationship between government spending and world commodity supplies and the real exchange rate and real commodity prices. It is shown that fiscal expansion and increasing world commodity supplies simultaneously...