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This Commentary describes how some of the Cleveland Fed’s macroeconomic forecasting models have been modified to use a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011234954
subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out … comparing the predictive content of credit spreads to growth in real stock prices for forecasting U.S. real GDP growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320681
This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West's (2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of West's writing. We then focus on recent developments, including advancements in the evaluation of forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320682
Small or medium-scale VARs are commonly used in applied macroeconomics for forecasting and evaluating the shock … forecasting context. While none of the methods clearly emerges as best, some techniques turn out to be useful to improve the … forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010905649
reduced-form inflation modeling and forecasting, we specify a range of models of inflation that incorporate different trend … specifications. We compare the models on the basis of their accuracies in out-of-sample forecasting, both point and density. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010786465
volatility specifications, in terms of point forecasting to some degree and density forecasting to a greater degree. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010787777
We propose a new algorithm which allows easy estimation of Vector Autoregressions (VARs) featuring asymmetric priors and time varying volatilities, even when the cross sectional dimension of the system N is particularly large. The algorithm is based on a simple triangularisation which allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460766
The concept of trend inflation is important in making accurate inflation forecasts. However, there is little consensus on how the trend in inflation should be modeled. While some studies suggest a survey-based measure of long-run inflation expectations as a good empirical proxy for trend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010681636
and forecasting, we specify a range of models of inflation, including: AR with constant trend; AR with trend equal to last …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009416058
This study examines the problem of forecasting an aggregate of cointegrated disaggregates. It first establishes … Carlo simulations and an empirical example to examine how analysis of forecasting an aggregate might be affected by a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005515008