Macro-variables such as consumption, investment and output are expected to move together in the long run. We consider whether survey forecasts of these quantities suggest beliefs about equilibrium relationships play a prominent role in expectations formation. Evidence is brought to bear from an...

Macroeconomic data are subject to revision over time as later vintages are released, yet the usual way of generating real-time out-of-sample forecasts from models effectively makes no allowance for this form of data uncertainty. We analyse a simple method which has been used in the context of...

The expectations-augmented Phillips curve (PC) is a cornerstone of many macroeconomic models. We consider the extent to which professional forecasters' inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are `theory consistent', and find much heterogeneity. Perceptions about the responsiveness of...

In this paper we consider the value of Google Trends search data for nowcasting (and forecasting) GDP growth for a developed (U.S.) and emerging-market economy (Brazil). Our focus is on the marginal contribution of "Big Data" in the form of Google Trends data over and above that of traditional...