The focus in this paper is on the time series dynamics of the basis for commodity futures. These have special interest since regulation of commodity markets is much laxer than is typical for stock markets. However, although such futures contracts have been traded for several decades, they have...

This paper tests for long run PPP using a nonstationary panel regression framework that can accommodate both permanent and temporary shocks. It also uses the common correlated estimator of Pesaran (2003a) to take account of cross sectional dependence. The PPP null in our framework is a unit...

We develop extensions of the variance-ratio statistic for testing the hypothesis a time series is uncorrelated and investigate their finite-sample performance. The tests employ an estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the sample autocorrelations that is consistent under the null for...

This paper proposes an efficient estimation method for Band Threshold Autoregressive (Band-TAR) models. Standard maximum-likelihood algorithms cannot be used here because the log-likelihood function is not differentiable with respect to the threshold parameter, and one commonly uses a grid...

We examine the forward premium anomaly at horizons of 1 month to 10 years. To overcome the data overlap problem, the estimation procedure used is a heteroscedastic and autocorrelation consistent bootstrap estimation procedure. Our point estimates and bootstrap p-values show that the anomaly...

Using threshold autoregressive specifications, this paper develops new parametric tests for level asymmetries. It proposes bootstrap likelihood ratio statistics to test the symmetric adjustment null against sign and amplitude asymmetries or a combination of both. Monte Carlo simulations show...

Commodity futures market efficiency has commonly been investigated in the standard I(1)-I(0) cointegration framework and it has provided inconclusive and conflicting results. However, recent empirical studies have found that the spot-futures basis is a fractionally integrated or long memory...