This paper applies the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) methodology to assess spillovers in euro area sovereign bond markets. Our analysis identifies a number of phases of interaction in those markets in recent years. We find a substantial increase in spillover between euro area sovereign bond...

In this note, three mechanical fiscal rules that are designed to maintain a sustainable path for the public finances are examined. Adherence to a strict numerical target for the deficit ratio has a procyclical effect on the economy’s growth rate. Building a safety margin into deficit targets...

This paper sets out a methodology for constructing fan charts for the government deficit and debt ratios over the medium-term. It relies on information contained in Stability/Convergence Programme Updates, a model of the relevant stochastic process (for example, the real GDP process) or...

The most popular method of measuring structural budget balances is the “gaps plus elasticities” approach. Abtract: In this paper, it is argued that the idiosyncratic features of an economy need to be accounted for properly when seeking to achieve good estimates of structural budget balances...

This paper sets out to interpret the close to balance provision of the Stability and Growth Pact and what it requires of member states in setting their budgetary targets. Among the conclusions reached are that a budgetary position of close to balance or in surplus can be objectively calculated...

With a favourable demographic profile, a budget balance currently in surplus and gross government debt under 60 per cent of GDP, Ireland would appear to be an economy with time on its side before any concerns about fiscal sustainability arise. In this paper, it is argued that favourable baseline...

The impact of uncertainty on money growth has occupied a prominent place in monetary policy analysis in recent years. Some papers examining this issue use ad hoc estimates and measure variability rather than uncertainty. We employ a multivariate GARCH model, which measures uncertainty by the...

Models of inflation usually have monetary policy impacting the economy through either an interest rate or a monetary/credit quantity channel but not through both. We argue that policy is transmitted via two distinct types of agents – those that are and that are not liquidity constrained. The...

The influence of commodity prices on consumer prices is usually seen as originating in commodity markets. We argue, however, that long run and short run relationships should exist between commodity prices, consumer prices and money and that the influence of commodity prices on consumer prices...