This paper puts forward a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model (B-GVAR) that accommodates international linkages across countries in a system of vector autoregressions. We compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast...

We study empirically the role that initial conditions played in the emergence of cross-country heterogeneity in real output loss during the recent global financial crisis. We use a global sample covering over 150 countries and focus on the differences in the determinants of the crisis in...

Using data for EU-27 NUTS 2 regions and major cities, we evaluate empirically the role of urban growth spillovers as a determinant of income dynamics at the regional level. We go beyond the empirically well documented static relationship between national income and productivity in urban...

Understanding the factors driving crude oil price developments is essential for assessing their effects. This paper examines four groups classifying a total of some thirty potential determinants of crude oil prices: fundamental factors, i.e. supply and demand, factors relating to the structure...

Crespo Cuaresma and Slacík (2007) show that macroeconomic cík fundamentals are rather fragile determinants of currency crises under model uncertainty. The objective of the present follow-up study is to search for empirical support for the first- and second-generation models of currency crises...

In the present paper we examine whether financial markets could have helped predict exchange rates in selected Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, during the current financial crisis. To this end, we derive risk-neutral...

This paper describes the new forecasting tool used by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) to derive near-term forecasts for GDP and imports for five Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries, namely Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. An error...

In this contribution, we tackle explicitly the issue of model uncertainty in the framework of binary variable models of currency crises. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, we assess the robustness of the explanatory variables proposed in the recent literature for both static and dynamic...