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structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the … in Germany reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely "good luck". …
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trends in unconditional firm level and aggregated output volatility in Germany are similar. There has been a long …
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used a new dataset on monthly real-time macroeconomic variables for Germany. The dataset covers the period 1994-2005. We …
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We analyse stylised facts for Germany’s business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from …
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We use a machine-learning approach known as Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to reexamine the usefulness of selected leading indicators for predicting recessions. We estimate the BRT approach on German data and study the relative importance of the indicators and their marginal effects on the...
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