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The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six … Arbeitsgemeinschaft wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute in Deutschland. Die Prognosefehler werden im Rahmen eines …
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We use a machine-learning approach known as Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to reexamine the usefulness of selected leading indicators for predicting recessions. We estimate the BRT approach on German data and study the relative importance of the indicators and their marginal effects on the...
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