This paper discusses whether the integration of international financial markets affects business cycle fluctuations. In the framework of a new open economy macro-model, we show that the link between financial openness and business cycle volatility depends on the nature of the underlying shock....

Based on monthly data covering the period from 1987 to 2021, we analyse whether cross‐sectional moments of stock market returns may provide information about the future position of the German business cycle. We apply in‐sample forecasting regressions with and without leading indicators as...

The present paper uses German annual data covering the period 1969-2000 to present evidence on the link between aggregate inflation and the higher-order moments of the distribution of relative price changes. Our empirical findings confirm predictions of contributions to the theoretical...