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Brokers and business cycles: Does financial market volatility cause real fluctuations?

Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - 1998

This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data … the future stance of the business cycle and on the volatility of industrial production. The results of our empirical … investigation lead us to reject the hypothesis that financial market volatility causes the cycle or real volatility. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275423

Business cycle volatility in Germany

Buch, Claudia M.; Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2002

Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and … structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475861

Sources of euro real exchange rate fluctuations : what is behind the euro weakness in 1999 - 2000

Döpke, Jörg; Gottschalk, Jan; Kamps, Christophe - 2001

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001584428

Sources of euro real exchange rate fluctuations : what is behind the euro weakness in 1999-2000?

Döpke, Jörg; Gottschalk, Jan; Kamps, Christophe - 2001

This paper analyzes the factors underlying the weakness of the euro. For this purpose, the framework advocated by Clarida and Gali (1994) is used. Within this model, three structural shocks drive the dynamics of the endogenous variables: aggregate supply shocks, aggregate spending shocks, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473872

Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany

Döpke, Jörg - 2000

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013261077

Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany

Döpke, Jörg - 2000

The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476550

Stock market dispersion, sectoral shocks, and the German business cycle

Döpke, Jörg - 2000

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013261073

Stock market dispersion, sectoral shocks, and the German business cycle

Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2000

This paper elaborates on the relative importance of sectoral shocks for real economic activity in Germany. Implications of multisectoral real business cycle models are examined by resorting to testing techniques based on stock market returns. The empirical evidence is obtained by calculating...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476130

Forecasting Stock Market Volatility with Macroeconomic Variables in Real Time

Döpke, Jörg - 2016

We compared forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989311

Moments of Cross-Sectional Stock Market Returns and the German Business Cycle

Döpke, Jörg; Müller, Karsten; Tegtmeier, Lars - 2022

Based on monthly data covering the period from 1987 to 2019, we analyse whether cross-sectional moments of stock market returns may provide information about the future position of the German business cycle. We apply in-sample forecasting regressions with and without leading indicators as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013290016