The need to understand the dynamics and after-effects of the recent financial crisis,  the evolution of macroprudential surveillance and the introduction of macroprudential regulation all require appropriate macroeconomic models of financial institutions and  markets.  We present models of...

This paper argues that evidence-based policy has clearly made a worldwide impact, at least at the rhetorical and institutional levels, and in terms of analytical activity. The paper then addresses whether or not evidence-based policy evaluation has had an impact on policy formation and public...

Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive...

Simple time series models looking for the effect of financial crises on output generally find that they reduce the sustainable level of output permanently. However, not all crises are the same, with some being caused by recessions and others causing or preceding recessions. Using a common...