Showing 1 - 10 of 262
We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013406440
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013392305
We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191053
We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186704
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012221576
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012250596
We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty … uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average …) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416311
We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375282
probability distributions over own-firm outcomes at a one-year lookahead horizon. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) began … investment for each firm and the uncertainty surrounding those expectations. Mean expectations are highly predictive of realized … growth rates in the firm-level data, and subjective uncertainty is highly predictive of absolute forecast errors. We also use …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012020039
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012437268