We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …

We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty … uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average …) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the …

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …

subjective expectations data are well founded. Finally, our plant-level subjective uncertainty measures correlate positively with …

those outcomes. This subjective uncertainty measure correlates positively with financial risk measures. Drawing on the … business' expectations for future outcomes, while the second moment provides a measure of business' subjective uncertainty over …. When respondents express greater subjective uncertainty about future outcomes at their plants, their forecasts are less …

probability distributions over own-firm outcomes at a one-year lookahead horizon. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) began … investment for each firm and the uncertainty surrounding those expectations. Mean expectations are highly predictive of realized … growth rates in the firm-level data, and subjective uncertainty is highly predictive of absolute forecast errors. We also use …