This paper discusses the purposes and limits of " structural " VAR modeling. It explains the choices that modelers have to make at different stages of the procedure. An illustration is provided by an analysis of monetary policy shocks in France over the 1972 : 1-1995 : 2. Compared with previous...

The article contributes to the literature on financial fragility, studying how macro-economic shocks affect supply and demand in the corporate debt market. We take into account the effect of the competitive environment, as well as the risk level, measured by companies' default rate. The model is...

The paper investigates, from the welfare and growth point of view, the determination of the optimal capacity of the banking system. For that purpose, we consider an overlapping generation model with endogenous growth.

In order to assess the effect of fiscal rules in Stage Three of EMU for France and Germany, Bayoumi and Eichengreen's (1992) structural VAR analysis is extended by including the general government financial surplus and conditioning by external variables. This allows a distinction between fiscal...

The paper investigates, from the welfare and growth point of view, the determination of the optimal capacity of the banking system. For that purpose, we consider an overlapping generation model with endogenous growth. There is horizontal differentiation and imperfect competition in the banking...

Pour expliquer l'existence de règles de «stop-loss» dans les institutions financières, nous développons un modèle principal-agent, où une firme d'investissement (le principal) doit faire appel à l'expertise d'un opérateur (l'agent) pour investir dans un actif risqué et sophistiqué...

In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the usefulness of dynamic factor models. We use Stock and Watson's (1999) out-of-sample methodology for models estimated over the 1988:1-2002:3 period, with balanced and unbalanced panels....

In order to provide short run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for France, we assess the forecasting performance of a large set of economic indicators, individually and jointly, as well as using dynamic factor models. We run out-of-sample forecasts implementing the Stock and Watson...

This Study and Research Paper is devoted to different estimates of the French economy's potential output and output gap. Several methods, which are presented in detail, are put forward to measure these indicators. The first two sections of the paper profile statistical univariate approaches:...

In order to assess the effect of fiscal rules in Stage Three of EMU for France and Germany, Bayoumi and Eichengreen's (1992) structural V.A.R. analysis is extended by including the general government financial surplus and conditioning by external variables. This allows a distinction between...